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The stock market suggests that traders’ exuberant expectations following election night haven’t panned out — at least not since the administration actually took office.
We are now a full 100 trading days since election night in November, pretty evenly split with 49 trading days through the inauguration and another 50 since then.
When it comes to the major companies in the Dow 30, and the 11 broad-based sectors of the stock market, there’s been little consistency in how they performed in the two time periods. As a whole, there’s been less enthusiasm in the second portion of the “Trump bump” than before the president actually took office.
Start with stocks in the Dow 30. Between election night and inauguration, the three best-performing stocks were Goldman Sachs (up 28 percent), JPMorgan Chase (up 20 percent), and Disney (up 15 percent). Since Inauguration Day however, those same stocks have been outpaced in a big way.
The top three stocks since Jan. 20 represent a very different theme: Apple (up 20 percent), Boeing and Cisco (both up nearly 12 percent). Apple’s upward trajectory was boosted by better-than-expected earnings reported in January.
Next consider the 11 sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs): There’s been a complete reversal between leaders and laggards. Between election night and the inauguration, the financial sector led the way, up 16 percent in just a few weeks. Since inauguration however, financials are only up 3 percent. In a many cases, it appears to be just a perfect flip-flop.
Notice in the chart above that the top five sectors before the inauguration (financials, industrials, materials, energy and telecommunications) all fell to nearly the bottom five after the inauguration.
The performance data suggests a mismatch between election-night expectations and political realities. The companies and sectors that saw initial boosts have not been able to replicate them for the most part.