How the Trump stock market ranks as he approaches his 100th day in office – MarketWatch

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President Donald Trump is nearing a major milestone in his presidency: His 100th day in office will be reached April 30.

And although Trump’s presidential victories since he took the oath of office on Jan. 20 have been thin on the ground as he confronts major headwinds in implementing many of the pro-growth initiatives that helped him to win the Nov. 8 election against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, the market’s been resilient.

So far, over his first 83 days in office (through Wednesday’s close), the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.29% has climbed 4.4%, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.38% is on track for a roughly 4% gain since Trump’s inauguration. (Since his election win, the Dow has climbed 12.3% and the S&P 500 has advanced 10%.)

The positive returns in equities, however, belie intensifying doubts about Trump’s ability to overhaul taxes, loosen Wall Street regulations and boost infrastructure spending quickly, if at all. Those factors have represented a trifecta of fiscal-stimulus pledges that catapulted the market to a fresh string of records over the past five months. But Trump’s difficulties in getting a health-care bill to replace Obamacare to a vote have raised doubts about the real-estate tycoon’s negotiating skills. The White House’s freshly strained relationship with Russia in the wake of last week’s missile strike on Syria and mounting tensions with North Korea also threaten to disrupt the market’s otherwise bullish buzz.

Also read: How Trump’s stock market ranks in his first 50 days in office

Check out: How Trump’s stock market ranks in his first 30 days in office

So far, the S&P 500’s performance since the inauguration puts Trump on track to rank seventh for stock-market performance over his first 100 days, behind President Barack Obama’s second term in office, when the market posted an 8.4% first-100-days gain, and behind George H.W. Bush’s first term in 1989, when the S&P 500 returned 8.1% (see table below, which tracks the first 100 days of all presidential terms since Herbert Hoover’s — the index was created in 1923 and expanded in 1926 and 1957, when it first comprised 500 stocks):

President 100th day in office S&P 500 index % change
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) June 12, 1933 86.47%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1945 10.42%
John F. Kennedy (D) April 30, 1961 8.92%
Barack Obama (D) April 30, 2009 8.39%
George H.W. Bush (R) April 30, 1989 8.03%
Barack Obama May 1, 2013 6.51%
Donald J. Trump (R) April 30, 2017 ?
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) May 1, 1957 3.65%
William Clinton (D) April 30, 1997 3.17%
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) April 30, 1965 2.90%
Richard Nixon (R) April 30, 1969 1.97%
Ronald Reagan (R) May 1, 1985 1.79%
William Clinton April 30, 1993 1.57%
Ronald Reagan May 1, 1985 0.88%
Herbert Hoover (R) June 12, 1929 -0.16%
George W. Bush (R) April 30, 2005 -1.58%
Jimmy Carter (D) April 30, 1977 -4.40%
Harry S. Truman (D) April 30, 1949 -4.90%
Dwight D. Eisenhower April 30, 1953 -5.81%
George W. Bush April 30, 2001 -6.93%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1937 -7.90%
Richard Nixon April 30, 1973 -9.94%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1941 -11.08%

Meanwhile, the Dow’s return so far puts Trump on pace for a ninth-place ranking among all presidents in the 120-year history of the blue-chip gauge. It’s also likely to be the fourth-best return on a percentage basis for a GOP president (see table below):

President 100 days in office DJIA % change
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) June 12, 1933 79.70%
William Taft (R) June 12, 1909 14.99%
William McKinley (R) June 12, 1901 13.27%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1945 8.34%
George H.W. Bush (R) April 30, 1989 8.21%
Barack Obama (D) May 1, 2013 7.70%
John F. Kennedy (D) April 30, 1961 6.99%
William Clinton (D) April 30, 1993 5.72%
Ronald Reagan (R) April 30, 1981 4.95%
Donald J. Trump April 30, 2017 ?
Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) May 1, 1957 4.17%
Calvin Coolidge (R) June 12, 1925 4.15%
Woodrow Wilson (D) June 13, 1917 3.44%
Lyndon B. Johnson (D) April 30, 1965 3.02%
Barack Obama April 30, 2009 2.76%
William Clinton April 30, 1997 2.41%
Richard Nixon (R) April 30, 1969 2.03%
George W. Bush (R) April 30, 2001 1.39%
Ronald Reagan May 1, 1985 -1.53%
Theodore Roosevelt (R) June 12, 1905 -2.01%
Herbert Hoover (R) June 12, 1929 -2.29%
George W. Bush April 30, 2005 -2.66%
William McKinley June 2, 1897 -2.71%
Jimmy Carter (D) April 30, 1977 -3.35%
Harry S. Truman April 30, 1949 -4.01%
Dwight D. Eisenhower April 30, 1953 -4.60%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1937 -6.29%
Warren G. Harding (R) June 12, 1921 -7.20%
Woodrow Wilson June 12, 1913 -7.97%
Richard Nixon April 30, 1973 -10.21%
Franklin D. Roosevelt April 30, 1941 -10.60%
Source: Dow Jones data

To be sure, a lot could happen between now and April 30, pushing Trump farther down in the rankings. Market participants, who have been anxious over the market’s lofty valuations and growing risk factors, are wagering that U.S. equities are due for a correction — that is, a decline from a recent peak of at least 10% — in the coming days and weeks.

Read: The big red flag that no one in the stock market is noticing

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