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The S&P 500 Index is now a stone’s throw away from our ideal target for this rally in the 2,410 region.
This recent rally seems to have shaken many traders, especially those who have been incessantly trying to short-sell this market for the past year. They note that the market SPX, +0.11% is just not making sense, and they’re scratching their heads about why it has moved so high. I still think 2017 has more pain in store for these traders.
However, as our primary pattern has suggested, we may see a strong drop begin in the upcoming week. As I have said, our ideal target for this rally off the 2,330 region is the 2,410 level, with 2,410-2,425 serving as our resistance. As long as this resistance is held, my expectation is that we can see a top in the market in the coming week.
It would be a top to a corrective rally, which often leads to a strong drop back down to at least the 2,330 region on the S&P 500. My ideal target for the decline is actually the 2,285 region, but we will have to see how the decrease develops to be able to identify the target for the downside with more accuracy.
I know I say this all the time, but despite my expectation for another drop in the market, there is nothing that is suggesting that it has seen its highs just yet. Rather, I still expect that the market will exceed the 2,500 region, and it may even exceed the 2,600 region, depending on how the next larger consolidation takes shape this summer or fall. In fact, I don’t foresee a 15%-20% correction even beginning to take hold until next year.
See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring intraday market analysis on U.S. indices, stocks, precious metals, energy, forex and more, along with an interactive member-analyst forum and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.