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Since first run-off for the French Presidential election – the stock market has gained a little over 30 points. That is 30 points in about one month.
Yet, is has experience 90 points of gains on the opening and in the minutes after that on just five days.
There is a peculiar trading pattern emerging, one where the bulk of the gains occurs on or at the open. On just five days, the two days after the French run-off, the day after the French election and Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 gained 90 points, almost all if it at the open.
Not only have the gains been concentrated in terms of time, they failed to lead to greater gains during the course of the day. On each of those days stocks meandered throughout the rest of the session to finish at or near the levels achieved early in the morning.
I think this may be a sign that retail investors are not chasing this stock market higher.
If retail investors were buying up this market, then I would expect to see that initial drive higher from overseas events or captured by the futures market, to be followed by another leg higher during the course of the day. We aren’t seeing that.
The AAII survey just showed another week of decreasing bullishness.