10 stock-market truisms that don't require any statistical support – MarketWatch

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It’s “Blogger Wisdom” week on the popular Abnormal Returns blog, and founder Tadas Viskanta, as he has done several times over the years, is sharing what he has gleaned by asking “an esteemed group of independent finance bloggers” several “(hopefully) provocative” questions.

The first one he lobbed out there: “What do you know with a high degree of confidence about investing that does not require any statistical support?”

Here are just 10 of the best responses, along with links to the bloggers’ Twitter accounts so you can check out more of what they have to say:

1. “Leverage can be deadly. It doesn’t take a statistician to know that if you bet more than you have, you are dramatically increasing your risk. It’s great on the way up, though!” — Wayne Lloyd, @dynamichedge.

2. “No matter what anyone tells you, successful investing is hard. No stance in the financial markets is ever easy and no strategy will ever give you 100% confidence in your ability to achieve your financial goals. You can make things simpler or more complex but no matter what you do it’s going to be hard. There are far too many psychological landmines to allow this game to ever be easy” — Ben Carlson, @awealthofcs.

3. “Value investing works. Buying something for less than it’s worth increases the value of the buyer’s holdings. I don’t need a backtest to know it makes sense” — Tobias Carlisle, @greenbackd.

4. “Whatever proposition you make or conclusion you reach can be supported by a carefully-selected chart, some ancient investing wisdom, or advice from a “billionaire fund manager or investor” — Jeffrey Miller, @dashofinsight.

5. “That most decisions get made with a high degree of confidence without having any statistical support” — James Osborne, @basonasset.

6. “Overweighting a position, no matter how good it looks, is almost always a bad idea. For every Warren Buffett that massively overweights a position like Coca-Cola KO, -0.02%  that ends up doing well, there are many more Bill Ackmans that massively overweight a Valeant Pharmaceuticals and have it blow up in their face” — Charles Sizemore, @charlessizemore.

7. “I know, with increasing certainty, that I know less than I think I do” — Cullen Roche, @cullenroche:

8. “That investors love stories aligned with their prior views and will look for flaws with any new information that runs counter to these views” — Jake, @econompic.

9. “You have no control over the market. The implication is that you should spend way less time thinking about the market and worrying about short-term moves” — Peter Lazaroff, @peterlazaroff:

10. “Markets will take you to the point of emotional breakage. You will get out. Then it will go the way you wanted it to go” — Jeff Carter, @pointsnfigures.

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