Opinion: There's a US stock market signal for a possible 'parabolic' move in prices – MarketWatch

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The stock market has been going straight up. And a new signal has just been given, showing that it’s possible that you haven’t seen anything yet. Let’s start with a chart to understand this.


Please click here for the chart, which compares the S&P 500 ETF SPY, +0.04% with momentum ETF MTUM, -0.29% Notice the rate at which the S&P 500 has risen. Also notice that, until recently, the momentum ETF had lagged behind but has now caught up.

Ask Arora: Nigam Arora answers your questions about investing in stocks, ETFs, bonds, gold and silver, oil and currencies. Have a question? Send it to Nigam Arora.

Parabolic move

In mathematical terms, a parabola is a curve where any point is at an equal distance from a fixed point called the focus and a fixed straight line called the directrix. In the context of the stock market, a parabolic move simply means that the rate of the stock market gains will increase by a large amount.

A parabolic move can be highly profitable. There is potential to make more money in the stock market than has already been made.

The signal from the algorithms

For market timing and allocation, at The Arora Report we use the adaptive ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation Model. Adaptive means that the underlying algorithms automatically change with market conditions. The model has macro, fundamental, quantitative and technical inputs in 10 categories.

The probability of a parabolic move, according to the algorithm, has been limping along around 0% for a very long time. The probability of a parabolic move has just jumped to 20%. It is due to a combination of different factors. The biggest factor is the way stocks are acting after they report earnings that are better than the whisper numbers and analysts’ consensus numbers.

Understanding probabilities

In plain English, probability simply means the likelihood of something happening.

The probability of getting heads in a fair coin toss is 50%. A probability of 70% means there are 70 chances out of 100 for that event to occur.

One of the most important contributions to profitability in your trading will be Nigam’s Second Law of Investing: “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next.” For this reason, the only way to be consistently profitable over a large number of trades, over a long period of time, is to think in terms of probabilities. If anyone tells you any different, run away from them as quickly as you can, as following them will lead to losses over a large number of trades over a long period of time.

The safest way to play it

One of the safest ways to play the markets if a parabolic move is starting is to use the momentum ETF MTUM. MTUM is already in the ZYX Global portfolio of The Arora Report.

Investors may also consider emerging markets of India, Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Russia. These emerging markets have the potential to provide even bigger returns. ETFs of interest are India ETFs EPI, -0.15% INDA, -0.40% and INDY, -0.28% ; Indonesia ETF EIDO, +0.00% ; Vietnam ETF VNM, -0.48% ; China ETF ASHR, +0.25% ; and Russia ETF RSX, -0.15%

Those who are inclined to use individual stocks may focus on the following: Amazon AMZN, +0.32% Facebook FB, -0.35% Nvidia NVDA, +0.36% Advanced Micro Devices AMD, +0.81% Applied Optoelectronics AAOI, +1.49% U.S. Steel X, -1.49% Applied Materials AMAT, -0.72% JinkoSolar JKS, -1.53% Microsoft MSFT, -0.03% Alphabet GOOG, +0.16% GOOGL, +0.22% and Apple AAPL, -0.32%

What to do now

This is a call to be prepared to buy aggressively if the parabolic move starts or the probability of the parabolic move goes higher. The reason is that, historically, such moves happen very quickly. If you have prepared ahead of time, you can act with conviction.

To be absolutely clear, this is not a call to start buying now. It is true that the probability of a parabolic move is 20%, but there’s an 80% probability of such a move not occurring. We will be on high alert and carefully monitoring the situation.

Disclosure: Subscribers to The Arora Report may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time. All recommended positions are reviewed daily at The Arora Report.

Nigam Arora is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background, has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies, is the developer of the adaptive ZYX Global Multi Asset Allocation Model and the ZYX Change Method to profit from change in trading and investing. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.

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