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In what would last week have seemed like a Wall Street miracle, stocks are hard at work on their fifth up day in a row this morning.
The Teflon equity market we’ve known and loved resurfaced yesterday as it marched onward and upward, past inflation data and a pop higher in the 10-year Treasury yield nearer the 3% line in the sand. The VIX VIX, +2.02% is under 20.
The only problem is that it all looks a little too easy, like a “Scooby-Doo” mystery that’s all squared away in mere minutes. Ruh-roh?
At this rates.. the 10 year will break 3% this week. I honestly have no idea how ANYONE could be bullish SPX other than the standard chaser… ( it went up 2 days.. its bullish…or it went down 2 days I am bearish ) nonsense..
— Bama (@Bamabroker) February 15, 2018
There are some doubts that equities can just sail on upward from here, end of story. Among them is our call of the day, which comes from CFRA’s chief investment strategist Sam Stovall, who says the S&P 500 “will likely have to retest its recent low.”
That low came last Thursday, when the S&P careened down to 2,532.69 before snapping back. As Stovall and others have pointed out, the index didn’t break its 200-day moving average, which helped it then slingshot upward more than 6% over the next four trading days.
However, the reason a retest can’t be avoided is “recoveries from sharp selloffs require reassurances,” the CFRA strategist says. In other words, investors will need proof that the bounce was for real.
The good news? That pullback will “present a second buying opportunity, rather than usher in a new bear market, since we don’t see recession on the horizon,” says Stovall.
A similar view comes from technical analyst Mark Arbeter, who says there’s more than a “50/50 chance we rollover and test (within 1% to 2%) the recent lows.”
A V-shaped bottom is unlikely, “as there was a fair amount of technical damage to a lot of stocks,” the Arbeter Investments president tells clients.
Key market gauges
The Dow DJIA, +0.53% is cruising above 25,000 for the first time in two weeks, while the S&P SPX, +0.59% and Nasdaq COMP, +1.01% are also climbing. Asian stocks matched Wall Street’s prior ride higher with strong gains in Hong Kong and Japan, though several markets there are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. European stocks SXXP, +0.53% are also charging higher.
The dollar DXY, -0.11% is getting mugged again, crude CLH8, +0.23% is up a bit, but pared back an earlier stronger bump. Gold GCJ8, -0.29% is flat. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.53% is right at 2.923%.
It’s been quite a ride down for the dollar USDJPY, -0.31% against the yen recently, and it looks like the same is on tap for Thursday. Our chart of the day comes from London Capital Group’s head of research, Jasper Lawler, whose chart below shows how the yen has broken out of its long-term trading range to hit a 15-month high recently.
“The current bout of dollar weakness could still stumble, particularly as EURUSD and GBPUSD approach multi-year peaks at 1.25 and 1.43 respectively. But the breakout in the yen skews the risks in favour of another leg lower in the buck,” says Lawler.
It’s 13-F time, which means investors can peek inside the portfolios of big institutional managers, though the info is from the fourth quarter. Sometimes shares mentioned react. Among the highlights, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +0.85% BRK.B, +0.82% added Apple AAPL, +2.79% and Teva shares TEVA, +8.54% and cut a stake in IBM IBM, +0.21% .
— Market Folly (@marketfolly) February 14, 2018
Data out so far have shown jobless claims edging up, while inflation components of the Empire State and Philly Fed indexes vaulted higher in February. Industrial output ended a streak of gains. Still to come, a home-builder index.
School shootings in the U.S. since 2013.
18 — That’s how many school shootings the U.S. has suffered so far in 2018, according to Everytown for Gun Safety.
The death toll from Wednesday’s gun attack at Florida’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Broward County, Fla., stands at 17, with many more injured. Everytown’s map above shows the locations of the 290 school shootings since 2013, as of Feb. 8.
— Vic Micolucci WJXT (@WJXTvic) February 14, 2018
I hope ever member of Congress saw this interview
Melissa Falkowski, teacher at Marjory Stoneman Douglas explains how well prepared they were and how many times they drilled for this and still there was nothing they can do
She breaks down when she begs Congress to do something pic.twitter.com/J6y9MK8b0V
— Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) February 15, 2018
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