The reality is, the US-North Korea Summit is a Success!
As expected, the G7 communique withdrawal by President Trump has been quick to fade as a factor in market sentiment.
While the leader of North Korea is no one to like, we can at least take relief from his being at the table in such a fashion. He flew in with China, and the Summit is in Singapore. All of Asia wants this to progress to a true peaceful reality as well as a signing of an agreement. As does the West, and perhaps most of all, desperately so for economic survival… North Korea itself.
As we look ahead, we see no geo-political risk at all. None. These are quite remarkable times that we are so very fortunate to be living in.
Yet, remember the media headlines of just one and two weeks ago?
The media was telling us, in big dramatic headlines, that Italian politics was going to lead to an even more severe Sovereign Debt Crisis? Even that the next great crash had begun? As we said in real time, it was all a complete load of nonsense. Absolute rubbish in terms of the real world.
Just another example of how we all must look through the negative sensationalism that is absolutely everywhere in the print and screen media these days.
“Look out the window” economics, as I like to call what I do, has never been more valuable, and anyone can do it.
Try it. The view is great!
This week will also see the Federal Reserve meeting.
A rate hike is expected, but we feel there is the potential for the Fed to wait until the following meeting. Either that, or suggest in comments that this may well be the last rate hike for quite some time. The US economy is very strong indeed, but sustained low inflation, a positive byproduct of real competition in this new economy, means there is no rush on rates.
This would send a powerful message to the market. Either way, the outcome is very likely to be bullish stocks.
Also this week, the ECB may well signal it is time for its own form of ‘tapering’, away from the massive stimulus of recent years. This would also be of significant historic reassurance to the market, and will result in a continued strong up move in European equities and help instil the overall reality of a strong global economy.
We forecast in advance that US tapering would send stocks higher. When everyone else thought otherwise. It is the same in regard to Europe. ECB ‘tapering’ would be extremely bullish. There could perhaps be a negative stock market knee-jerk response over the first couple of days. Then though, the up-trend should again reassert itself.
Looking for that under-dog that is about to have a big win?
We think it is right in front of all of us.
In terms of the ability to accelerate, few can better Tesla. Not only can its cars be quick, but so too can its stock. This has been proven on many occasions previously.
We like TESLA precisely because of all the negative press it so frequently endures. As, despite this, the price is already turning up rather nicely. Please see the charts provided further below.
The fall from grace over the past year was quite severe. To us, that means real value has been created. This is after all a company at the frontier of several mass market technologies, and with a flexible internal management and hard working approach that always tends to surprise their critics.
The all in one energy mix of clean energy for home and car cannot be under-estimated in terms of its long term brand appeal as a a first mover. The electric truck has the potential to transform the national transport industries of nations all over the world. It is the big picture long distance potential of this company, which most analysts looking at short term accounting methodologies, fail to recognise.
We see a great risk/reward opportunity here. If we broke below recent lows, we would consider we were possibly wrong. In the meantime however, and perhaps for many years to come, the potential upside for a first mover in all electric mass production motor cars and trucks, as well as integrated clean energy home and transport systems, is simply unlimited.
My role is to find limited downside/unlimited upside opportunities. This is exactly one such example.
In general, please be aware that despite the media barrage to the contrary, it really is a great world at the moment.
Make the most of your opportunities.
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