Bulletproof Investing Performance Update: Week 77

Safety First: NASCAR driver Johanna Long and her helmet (Image Credit: Gearheads)

Bulletproof Investing: Week 77 Performance

Each week since the beginning of June 2017, I have presented at least two hedged portfolios created by Portfolio Armor to my Bulletproof Investing subscribers. This is an “investing with a helmet on” approach, and these portfolios are designed to last six months at most. As with any investment method, the returns with this approach will vary. But, in the interests of transparency and accountability, I have promised to publicly share the final performance of everything I present, regardless of how it does.

Here, I update the final performance of the five hedged portfolios and the top 10 names (unhedged) that I presented in the 77th week I offered my service. Let’s look at what I presented in week 77 and how it did.

Portfolio 1

This was the $30,000 portfolio. The primary securities here were Five Below (FIVE) and Eli Lilly (LLY). They were selected because they had the highest potential return estimates, net of hedging costs when hedging against >13% declines, and they had share prices low enough that you could buy round lots of them for less than $10,000. AMD (AMD) was added in a fine-tuning step to absorb leftover cash from rounding down to round lots of the first two names.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario for this portfolio was a decline of 11.96% (the “max drawdown”), and the best-case scenario was a gain of 23.62% (the “Net Potential Return” or aggregate potential return net of hedging cost). The “Expected Return” of 8.21% was a ballpark estimate, taking into account that actual returns historically have averaged 0.3x Portfolio Armor’s potential return estimates.

Portfolio 1 Performance

Here’s how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This portfolio was up 1.09%, underperforming its expected return but outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY).

So far, we have six-month performance data for 25 portfolios I’ve presented that were hedged against >13% declines. Here’s how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

PORTFOLIOS HEDGED AGAINST > 13.0% DECLINES

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
February 8, 2018 6.57% 5.29% 11.75%
June 7, 2018 8.18% -8.90% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 12.69% -7.07% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 11.30% -7.14% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.89% -5.45% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.79% -2.85% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 10.38% -8.45% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.89% -10.78% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 7.49% -9.83% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 11.71% -7.39% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.80% -2.21% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 15.01% 2.44% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 11.01% -6.89% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.71% -7.43% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.82% -7.66% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 17.20% -4.31% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 14.27% 1.95% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 13.66% -3.84% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.52% 8.56% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.33% 2.26% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 9.07% -1.54% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 6.61% -5.75% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.44% 6.78% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.64% 4.18% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 8.21% 1.09% 5.49%
Average 10.85% -3.00% -0.93%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 2

This was the $100k portfolio. This one included Helen of Troy (HELE), LLY, Lululemon Athletica (LULU), and McCormick (MKC) as primary securities. AMD was added in the fine-tuning step again to absorb cash left over from the process of rounding down to round lots of the primary securities.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario for this one was a decline of 13.54%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 25.19%, and the ballpark estimate of an expected return was 10.85%.

Portfolio 2 Performance

Here’s how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 6.44%, versus 5.49% for SPY. So far, we have six-month performance data for 31 portfolios I’ve presented hedged against >14% declines. Here’s how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

PORTFOLIOS HEDGED AGAINST > 14.0% DECLINES

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
December 28, 2017 9.33% 9.95% 1.99%
January 18, 2018 9.32% 9.65% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 9.33% 5.65% 1.10%
February 8, 2018 6.21% 6.58% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 6.95% -8.55% 4.08%
February 15, 2018 8.37% -6.65% 4.08%
May 24, 2018 11.16% -7.08% -2.63%
May 24, 2018 10.19% -3.39% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 6.97% -1.57% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 7.11% -4.27% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 12.74% -6.08% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 12.38% -10.71% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.20% -7.76% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.16% -5.18% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 10.90% -7.76% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.57% -10.43% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 8.99% -6.50% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 10.75% -8.11% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.25% -2.06% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 14.23% -2.27% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 13.43% 0.67% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.07% -8.29% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 15.29% -8.61% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 15.78% -3.48% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 12.31% -2.43% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 15.60% -10.62% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 9.87% 7.16% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.67% 0.36% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.77% -2.81% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 7.78% 4.41% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 9.07% 7.97% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 10.10% 4.98% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 10.85% 6.44% 5.49%
Average 10.51% -2.14% -0.39%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 3

This was the $1 million portfolio. It included AAON (AAON), Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), HELE, LLY, LULU, MKC, and United Continental (UAL) as primary securities. AMD was added in the fine-tuning step again to absorb cash left over from the process of rounding down to round lots of the primary securities.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario here was a drawdown of 14.49%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 26.92% (the net potential return), and the expected return was 9.57%.

Portfolio 3 Performance

Here’s how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 6.49%. So far, we have six-month performance data for 49 portfolios I’ve presented hedged against >15% declines. Here’s how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

PORTFOLIOS HEDGED AGAINST > 15.0% DECLINES

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
April 23, 2017 6.74% 15.41% 10.25%
December 31, 2017 8.90% 13.07% 2.52%
January 29, 2018 8.52% 9.88% -0.30%
February 1, 2018 7.30% -5.69% 0.59%
February 1, 2018 8.70% 0.87% 0.59%
February 22, 2018 7.91% 5.74% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 7.45% 5.80% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 7.47% -1.77% 5.82%
March 8, 2018 7.73% -4.26% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 7.80% 1.73% 6.68%
March 15, 2018 7.21% -4.70% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 7.41% 3.20% 11.74%
March 22, 2018 7.40% 5.89% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 7.57% 4.47% 11.48%
March 29, 2018 8.07% 5.03% 11.48%
March 31, 2018 8.04% 9.06% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 10.57% -1.33% 9.33%
April 5, 2018 10.88% -3.70% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 9.02% 3.66% 4.71%
April 26, 2018 9.78% 5.01% 0.53%
April 26, 2018 10.16% 14.99% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 9.57% 2.47% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 8.74% -2.96% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 12.15% 4.72% 1.54%
May 17, 2018 11.00% -0.74% 1.54%
May 31, 2018 7.44% -2.33% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 8.11% -9.65% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 11.96% -8.61% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 11.49% -11.82% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.41% -7.70% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 8.99% -6.88% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 9.64% -4.41% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.59% -10.71% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 9.41% -8.27% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 9.47% -6.12% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 12.22% -1.73% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 13.82% -0.80% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 14.61% -4.40% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.46% -8.91% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.61% -4.93% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 16.43% -5.37% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 13.07% -0.82% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 14.11% -4.31% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.20% 1.05% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 9.01% 4.25% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.84% 0.20% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 8.51% 3.56% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.03% 9.04% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.13% 1.87% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 9.57% 6.49% 5.49%
Average 9.76% 0.09% 2.31%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 4

This was the $2 million aggressive portfolio. This one included AAON, EEFT, HELE, LLY, LULU, MKC, and UAL as primary securities. Amazon (AMZN) was added to absorb leftover cash in the fine-tuning step.


The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario here was the max drawdown of 18.55%, the best-case scenario was the net potential return of 28.21%, and the expected return was 9.78%.

Portfolio 4 Performance

Here’s how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 7.02%. So far, we have six-month performance data for 59 portfolios I’ve presented hedged against >20% declines. Here’s how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

PORTFOLIOS HEDGED AGAINST > 20.0% DECLINES

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
June 22, 2017 8.43% 20.08% 11.27%
August 31, 2017 8.03% 9.10% 10.87%
October 12, 2017 9.00% 2.12% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 10.07% 13.05% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 8.57% 9.39% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 9.77% 10.67% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 9.59% 4.45% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 8.95% 5.18% 6.22%
November 22, 2017 9.39% 7.31% 5.90%
November 30, 2017 8.55% -4.74% 3.80%
December 8, 2017 8.34% 4.50% 5.73%
December 14, 2017 7.75% 17.49% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 9.33% 12.33% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 9.92% 9.45% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 9.65% 12.92% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 8.93% 9.14% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 9.40% 7.89% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 9.82% 6.19% 1.10%
January 29, 2018 9.29% 10.48% -0.30%
February 1, 2018 9.00% 0.84% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 7.35% 12.49% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 8.19% -6.14% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 8.54% 6.90% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 7.98% 6.66% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 8.32% -3.20% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 7.90% 2.50% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 7.62% 9.58% 11.74%
March 22, 2018 7.65% 8.82% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 8.26% 7.72% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 10.59% 0.20% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 9.36% 4.63% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 11.04% 17.36% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 10.32% 17.44% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 10.08% 7.54% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 8.64% 2.61% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 11.53% -4.37% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 11.74% -6.80% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 7.76% -4.70% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 8.62% -11.51% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 13.05% -9.78% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 12.44% -17.22% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.80% -7.95% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.11% -13.03% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 9.97% -8.37% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.82% -10.54% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 9.87% -6.70% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 9.76% -3.91% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 12.78% -1.44% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 14.60% 0.79% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 15.20% 0.71% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 13.16% -7.98% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.66% -4.72% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 17.32% -5.23% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 13.73% -0.28% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 14.71% -7.29% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.11% -0.33% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 9.61% 4.16% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 9.03% 5.07% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 9.45% -0.89% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.12% 9.46% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.33% 2.52% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 9.78% 7.02% 5.49%
Average 10.01% 2.57% 2.52%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 5

This was the $2 million top names portfolio. Names that appeared in this portfolio, but not in the previous November 15 portfolios were Dorman Products (DORM) and Square (SQ).

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario was a drawdown of 8.5%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 24.21%, and the expected return was 7.87%.

Portfolio 5 Performance

Here’s how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This portfolio was up 0.15%. So far, we have a full six-month performance for 76 portfolios I’ve presented hedged against >9% declines. Here’s how each of them did (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

PORTFOLIOS HEDGED AGAINST > 9.0% DECLINES

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
June 8, 2017 6.11% 9.25% 9.99%
June 16, 2017 5.13% 11.59% 10.94%
June 22, 2017 5.43% 13.88% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 6.72% 12.92% 11.68%
July 7, 2017 6.29% 8.40% 14.07%
July 13, 2017 6.70% 12.96% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 6.57% 10.34% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 5.61% 8.20% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 8.46% 16.52% 12.66%
August 3, 2017 8.84% 13.98% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 6.15% 4.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 8.11% 9.12% 13.48%
August 17, 2017 7.06% 9.41% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 6.79% 8.97% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 7.43% 4.65% 10.87%
September 7, 2017 6.33% 9.51% 11.61%
September 14, 2017 7.25% 11.27% 11.19%
September 22, 2017 6.41% 10.55% 6.67%
September 28, 2017 6.27% 8.35% 4.73%
October 5, 2017 8.36% 8.68% 5.26%
October 5, 2017 7.33% 4.62% 5.26%
October 12, 2017 6.58% 5.10% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 7.91% 9.63% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 7.63% 9.34% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 6.15% 4.72% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 7.09% -1.48% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 7.13% 8.93% 6.22%
November 22, 2017 6.76% -0.85% 5.90%
November 30, 2017 6.53% -1.80% 3.80%
December 8, 2017 5.10% 4.88% 5.73%
December 14, 2017 6.75% 13.47% 5.87%
December 14, 2017 6.15% 12.47% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 6.70% 0.83% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 7.88% 6.19% 1.99%
December 28, 2017 7.70% 14.94% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 8.65% 10.83% 0.59%
January 4, 2018 9.30% 15.12% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 7.59% -2.69% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 6.81% -0.21% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 8.66% 3.47% 1.10%
February 1, 2018 6.59% 1.69% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 4.74% 8.07% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 6.37% -2.10% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 5.44% 1.72% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 5.05% 4.68% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 6.39% -3.81% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 5.23% 1.31% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 5.98% 4.01% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 5.93% 4.77% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 6.91% 3.35% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 9.09% -2.72% 4.71%
April 12, 2018 8.35% -0.64% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 9.66% -4.07% 3.67%
April 19, 2018 8.86% 1.04% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 7.33% 5.67% 0.53%
April 26, 2018 7.72% 7.56% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 8.33% 1.96% 4.47%
May 3, 2018 10.67% -1.73% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 7.96% 2.84% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 7.87% 0.60% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 8.65% -5.27% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 6.22% -0.19% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 7.23% -6.52% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 9.44% -4.69% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 9.35% -7.29% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 7.13% -7.56% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 7.70% -5.45% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 8.22% -6.77% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 7.21% -5.21% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 6.47% -5.21% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 7.71% -0.32% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.83% -0.96% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 10.73% -5.46% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 9.69% -3.52% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 10.23% -7.59% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 10.52% -6.09% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 9.17% -3.47% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 9.31% -1.86% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 9.98% -5.35% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 6.98% -1.76% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 6.78% 4.03% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.29% 1.97% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 6.43% 1.78% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 6.27% 4.74% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 8.35% -2.01% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 7.87% 0.15% 5.49%
Average 7.47% 3.19% 4.41%

Table via Portfolio Armor

One note about the table above: It includes both $100k portfolios and $1M portfolios. Starting with the May 24 cohort, I began presenting $100k portfolios hedged against >14% declines, so they appear in a different table from that point forward. My guess is that will slightly improve the average performance of the portfolios hedged against >9% declines.

Top Names

These were Portfolio Armor’s top 10 names as of November 15. Names that didn’t appear in the portfolios above were Darden Restaurants (DRI), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), and Clorox (CLX).

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on November 15 and was included in the same Marketplace post as the top names portfolio above.

For this cohort, as of November 15:

  • Average 36M Beta = 0.82
  • Average 20% threshold optimal put hedging cost: 2.4%

Top Names Performance

Here’s how the top names did:

The top names (unhedged) were up 2.1% on average vs. up 5.49% for SPY. So far, 45 top names/cohorts have beaten SPY, one has tied SPY, and 30 have underperformed SPY over the next six months. You can see the performance for all of the top name cohorts I’ve presented so far in the table below (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Starting Date Portfolio Armor 6-Month Performance SPY 6-Month Performance
June 8, 2017 14.49% 9.99%
June 15, 2017 19.85% 10.97%
June 22, 2017 24.46% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 18.24% 11.68%
July 6, 2017 21.03% 14.81%
July 13, 2017 28.25% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 25.04% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 33.52% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 20.72% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 13.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 10.71% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 15.23% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 8.42% 10.87%
September 7, 2017 12.75% 11.61%
September 14, 2017 29.19% 11.19%
September 21, 2017 22.56% 9.42%
September 28, 2017 14.30% 4.73%
October 5, 2017 11.53% 5.26%
October 12, 2017 15.46% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 20.73% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 18.10% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 12.64% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 5.41% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 6.11% 6.22%
November 23, 2017 5.18% 6.19%
November 30, 2017 -0.19% 3.80%
December 7, 2017 11.51% 5.99%
December 14, 2017 29.80% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 17.11% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 13.78% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 30.22% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 -2.06% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 7.00% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 1.73% 1.10%
February 1, 2018 11.02% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 25.21% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 4.31% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 19.48% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 10.64% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 5.82% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 6.99% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 8.64% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 14.68% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 9.76% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 -2.29% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 4.66% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 2.30% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 10.96% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 7.01% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 -6.70% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 -5.60% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 -7.91% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 -14.13% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 -2.98% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 -24.51% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 -23.86% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 -18.58% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 -9.02% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 -13.53% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 -11.30% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 -9.38% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 -6.62% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 -7.01% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 -5.88% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 -9.88% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 -9.20% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 -5.19% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 1.58% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 0.20% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 5.54% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.88% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 -5.10% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 5.28% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 5.29% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 -0.72% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 2.10% 5.49%
Average 6.67% 4.34%

Table via Portfolio Armor

So Portfolio Armor’s top ten names averaged 6.67% over the average of these 76 6-month periods, versus SPY’s average of 4.34%, an average outperformance of 2.33% over 6 months.

Top Names Time-Stamped

For a few months, in addition to posting those top names in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, I also time-stamped them on Twitter. If you click on the tweet shown below and scroll down, it will take you to a thread showing those time-stamped posts as well as charts of their subsequent performance.

Week 77 Assessment

The top 10 names (unhedged) underperformed SPY for the 30th time out of 76 weeks (we didn’t post the top 10 in week 1). None of the hedged portfolios outperformed their expected returns, but three out of five outperformed SPY, which illustrates how our portfolio construction can add alpha even when our security selection alone doesn’t.

We still suggest investors consider splitting their assets into two or three tranches, if possible, and investing in one hedged portfolio now, one in a month or two, and so on. That way, you’ll have four to six entries per year (since each hedged portfolio lasts six months), reducing the amount of money that would be exposed to a significant market transition.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.