In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Baozun
What’s the estimated valuation?
We’re using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥164.6m | CN¥312.4m | CN¥568.3m | CN¥785.0m | CN¥999.7m | CN¥1.20b | CN¥1.37b | CN¥1.52b | CN¥1.65b | CN¥1.75b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 38.12% | Est @ 27.35% | Est @ 19.81% | Est @ 14.53% | Est @ 10.84% | Est @ 8.25% | Est @ 6.44% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 12% | CN¥147 | CN¥248 | CN¥403 | CN¥496 | CN¥563 | CN¥601 | CN¥614 | CN¥606 | CN¥585 | CN¥555 |
(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥4.8b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 12%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF_{2029} × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.8b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ 12%– 2.2%) = CN¥18b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)^{10}= CN¥18b÷ ( 1 + 12%)^{10}= CN¥5.7b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥11b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$28.6, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Baozun as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.364. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For Baozun, We’ve compiled three relevant factors you should further research:
- Risks: Case in point, we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Baozun you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn’t be ignored.
- Future Earnings: How does BZUN’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.